The New Silent Majority

In 1969 during the height of the Vietnam war and the anti-war movement, President Richard Nixon gave a speech in which he called on a group he termed "the great silent majority" to show their support for the war effort and the government. This silent majority was juxtaposed to the vocal minority, the leftists on the streets fighting to end the war and American imperialism. Kenneth Crawford, a writer for Newsweek, noted at the time that Nixon's evocation of the silent majority was a nod to the "comfortable, housed, clad and fed, who constitute the middle stratum of society. They aspire to more and feel menaced by those who have less". Nixon may have been correct in his estimation that the ascension of millions of working Americans into the middle-class during the postwar boom had created a new and evermore conservative electorate. The militant working-class masses that had propelled Roosevelt to power and built America's social democracy had faded into the background. Nixon's time was the beginning of the era of the middle-class voter. 

Very quickly, the notion that the silent majority of voters were more conservative, more regressive than many had estimated, gained a foothold. I think it's fair to say in the late 20th century, there seems to have been at least some truth to this narrative. It makes sense, with high rates of homeownership, the burgeoning middle-class were new investors in the system and ripe targets for conservative politics. Social democracy, in many ways, had become a victim of its success in lifting millions out of poverty and into asset ownership. The idea of the 'silent majority' proved so popular that it would be evoked by countless conservative politicians vying for power around the world. The term's popularity lies in its ability to drive a wedge between activists, unions etc. and the progressive causes they represent and the wider public. It primes the public to view progressive politics as marginal and something that doesn't relate to their lives. I don't think that's ever been true, but it was easier to believe at the height of neoliberal capitalism. The biggest believers that the Silent majority had pivoted right were the centre-left establishment who gave up trying to convince voters of the merits of progressive policy and shifted further and further right to capture this mythical 'median voter'.

In the 53 years since the term entered the lexicon, the social terrain of politics has radically changed. The median voter today is very different from the median voter of 1969. Despite this, the centre-left continues to cling to the idea. From personal experience in these spaces, I know for a fact that it remains received wisdom within New Zealand's centre-left political establishment that ours is a conservative country and therefore, to win, you must demonstrate your centrist credentials and appeal to this silent majority while sidelining the organised left. This formula for electoral success may have worked in a bygone era, but today it is looking increasingly moribund and out of touch. Neoliberalism, just like social democracy, has been a victim of its success by eroding its voting base: the comfortable middle-class. Is that a shock? Trickle-down economics has decimated the middle-class. 

The new silent majority differs from the median voter Richard Nixon evoked. A cursory glance at opinion polls and surveys of the New Zealand populace demonstrates this. The new silent majority is decidedly more progressive and shifting evermore so. Hard to believe? Just look at opinion polls of voters undertaken in the last few years.

In 2020 a survey from Horizon asked: "Which of the following issues do you think are the most important in helping you decide which party to vote for in this year's general election?". The results show the top 3 issues were healthcare, the second affordable housing and quality of life. Another poll carried out in 2020 by Newshub-Reid Research revealed that nearly half of New Zealanders want to see wealth taxed more. 1New's Vote Compass, an online survey and therefore less statistically reliable and valid, had a similar finding with 59% of voters saying the wealthy should pay more tax and 62% that corporations should also pay more tax. What surprised me looking over this data was that a massive 69% of New Zealanders want income support for those on low wages and not in work increased. The survey found support for increased welfare provisions "largely consistent across salary groups, age ranges, renters and owners; and across the political spectrum". Despite this, you do not see it reflected in media coverage on the issue. Indeed, no political party besides the Greens are willing to state what is, in fact, popular opinion that welfare rates need to increase substantially. 

The same is true for many other issues; a recent survey explosively revealed that 77% of New Zealanders want house prices to fall. This is a huge mandate for the government to take decisive action on the housing crisis and regulate the out of control property market. Instead, the Minister of Finance condescendingly told the public that they didn't really want house prices to fall. Meanwhile, when it came to industrial policy in 2017, 72% of New Zealanders agreed that "trade unions are necessary to protect workers". Another survey undertaken in 2019 showed that 60% of New Zealanders supported compulsory opt-out unionism. Radical. 

This new silent majority is not just progressive on bread and butter issues. They want urgent action on climate change, our criminal justice to focus on rehabilitation and support banning conversion therapy. In recent times, the public has consistently shown support for public health measures aimed at controlling the spread of COVID-19, including border quarantines. This is despite wall to wall criticism from the media and New Zealand businesses who desperately want New Zealand to follow the rest of the West in ditching public health expertise and sacrificing our collective health in an attempt to protect their profit margins. 

My point is that the math doesn't add up; how do we explain the disconnect between public opinion and the views we see represented in parliament and the mainstream media. The establishment has been to the public's right on every issue mentioned above. Things have changed drastically since Nixon's time. The notion that the default median voter generally sways conservative and that ours is a right-wing country doesn't hold water anymore. The new silent majority wants transformative change. Will the centre hold? I can't predict the future, but I would wager that a crisis of representation is brewing, and the disconnect between our representative institutions and the people has significant implications for democracy. One word of advice for the establishment: it's time to listen and then act accordingly, in that order.

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